Greetings from the Flight Deck—Welcome Aboard!

…Join me on an adventure. A journey. A celebration of flight, regaling tales of world travel, and musings on the “ups n downs” of the rarely lucrative but always rich airline pilot career!

Follow the Adventure

Follow the Adventure...

Join this Site!

Followers

LIKE ME ON FACEBOOK!

Monday, March 17, 2014

#MH370—Possible Scenarios?

#blogformation #blog #avgeek #aviation



   The mysterious disappearance of MH370 has brought with it much speculation. As of this writing, the plane—and the cause—has yet to be found.

   My fellow "Blogging in Formation" pilot-writers and I have been discussing on What-if scenarios all week. They have come up with some excellent—and very chilling—possibilities. See their posts below.

   Early on, one possibility stood out as most likely: inflight breakup, either due to structural failure or bomb. 

   NYCAviation.com asked me to write an article about just such a scenario.  For your convenience, that article is reposted here.

MH370,airline,aviation,avgeek,accident,air crash,capn,aux,captain,blog,emergency,inflight

You’re The Captain:

Explosive Decompression at 40,000 Feet!


   You’re the Captain of Fantastic Airlines Flight, 123. You’re an hour into your flight from Paris to Tokyo, cruising over the Baltic Sea at FL 400. You’ve assigned PF (Pilot Flying) duties to your trusty FO (First Officer) Mark, who is flying the plane on autopilot. As PNF (Pilot Not Flying) on this leg, you work the radios and run support. In the two cockpit jumpseats behind you sit your IRO’s (International Relief Officer,) who are just about to take over for the middle part of the 11-hour flight while you and Mark go to the back and rest up for landing. You reach for the Flight Attendant call button. But suddenly . . .
BOOM! Explosive decompression!
For the next ten seconds, the cockpit becomes a hurricane, with papers and small loose objects flying. The windows frost over. Suddenly, the temperature plummets to minus a jillion.


You, Mark and the two IRO’s all frantically snatch and don your full face Oxygen masks. No time for checklists; at 40,000’, time of useful consciousness is a mere 15-20 seconds.

With a hiss! the mask sucks snugly around your head. Fumbling in the blind (the oxygen mask is also fogged over,) you select 100%, Forced Flow. You peel away the thin plastic anti fog lining and suddenly you can see again.


“I have the aircraft!” you shout.
“You have the aircraft!” your FO, previously the Pilot Flying, acknowledges.
You reach to kick off the autopilot—and realize it’s already committed suicide. You grab the yoke. Simultaneously, you ease the nose over into a high dive. You chop the power. You need to get down ASAP, but you dare not increase speed: the aircraft has no doubt suffered structural damage. But she’s still alive and flying, and you want to keep her that way.
She’s sluggish, right wing shuddering and trying to drop, the tail yawing hard to the right. You kick in left rudder and hold left aileron just to keep her going straight.
The hurricane’s gone, but there’s still a cacophony of sound assaulting your ears. 
Ding! ding! ding! goes the Master Caution, flashing red and competing with about a dozen amber emergency procedures suddenly popping up on your ECAM, all clamoring for your attention.
The FO silences the Master Caution. “Mayday, mayday,”  he shouts in your ears, muffled by the microphone in his O2 mask. “Fantastic Flight 123, declaring an emergency. Explosive decompression, executing a rapid descent. Turning off course to heading 360.”
In back, screams, and someone making a PA. You can’t make out the words, but you know it’s a flight attendant bleating out instructions and imploring everyone to stay calm— herself shouting in a frantic, panicked voice. Then the screams and PA suddenly go silent. They’ve either donned their own masks, automatically deployed by the pressure loss—or they’ve all passed out.
And there’s one more noise: that of rushing air. Somewhere back there, you have a gaping hole in your machine. But you already knew that.
The altimeter blazes through 32,000’, spinning backwards like a madman’s time travel clock. Your vertical speed, normally 1-2,000 feet per minute up or down, is now passing through 8,000 fpm. You’re over water for the moment, so you’re aiming for an altitude of 10,000’.
“Call the back,” you order. “We need to know what’s going on.”
“Already did, Cap’n,” your trusty FO replies. “No response.”
Not surprising. They're probably all out cold.
Just in case, you toggle the PA switch. “This is the Captain,” you say, in the most calm, commanding voice you can muster. “Remain seated. The situation is under control.” That’s all you have time to say. Right now, you’re a tad busy working on that little bit about, “the situation is under control.”
“Explosive decompression Checklist,” you order. It’s a backup for what you’ve already done, but you need Mark to read it, just in case you’ve missed something. And in the “fog of war,” even the best-trained pilot can easily miss something.

Again, Mark’s already anticipated your next command, and has the QRH (Quick Reference Handbook) out and ready to read. You’ve got your hands full flying the plane, so he reads and does it aloud.
“‘O2 Masks—Deploy’ he quotes. “Deployed. ‘Cabin masks—Deploy’ Deployed . . . Turn off the airway and Descend to MEA (Minimum Enroute Altitude) as soon as possible. Do not exceed speed at time of failure. Assess damage and adjust flight path and controls accordingly. Land at nearest suitable airport.’ Explosive Decompression Checklist complete!”
“Roger that,” you reply. “MEA’s below 10,000, so that’s where we’re headed for now.”
The speed begins to increase. You gingerly pitch up to bleed it off. A glance at the altimeter: 25,000’. You’re low enough now to ease in some speed brakes. Instantly, the plane begins to shudder violently. No good. You ease the brakes back off.
It’s then you notice: the right engine’s out—and on fire.
“ECAM actions,” you bark.
Mark reads the top checklist that’s popped up on your screen. “Engine Number Two, failure and fire, Skipper.”
“Understood.”
Mark begins reading and doing the on-screen emergency checklists. “‘Engine Two thrust lever—Idle’ Idle. Engine Two Master switch—Off’ Confirm?” he asks. Again, in the fog of war, the last thing you want to do is shut down the wrong engine.

MH370,airline,aviation,avgeek,accident,air crash,capn,aux,captain,blog,emergency,inflight
You hazard a glance at his hand, poised to pull the Number Two kill switch.
“Confirm,” you reply.
“Off! ‘Engine Two Fire Bottle—Discharge’ . . . The fire’s out, Captain,” Mark announces, with obvious relief.
“Roger that, continue with ECAM actions.”
You glance behind at the IRO’s. Strapped in and masks on, they look back at you.
You have an idea. While Mark has his hands full securing the plane with oodles of checklists, you’ve got two fully qualified pilots at your disposal sitting right there.
“Kathy,” you call to the first relief pilot, “I need you to get back there and see what’s going on. Don the PBE (Portable Breathing Equipment) and take the crash axe. If they’re all out, put masks on our gals up front and try to revive them. And if you see any structural damage, get back here and report it ASAP!”
“Aye aye, Cap’n!”
“Charlie,” you call out to the second pilot, “get up here and find us the nearest suitable pavement.”
“Yes, sir!” Charlie springs out of the jumpseat, kneels by the pedestal, and punches data into your flight computer.
“Captain,” the FO chimes in.
“Yeah, Mark?”
“ATC advises Stockholm’s 170 miles ahead, about 10° right of course. Denmark’s behind us 250 miles.”
Damn. You missed that radio call. The fog of war again. You contemplate the situation. Denmark’s behind you, and nearly twice as far and twice as much maneuvering. And you still don’t know what’s going on with the plane.
“Stockholm sound good to you, Mark?”
“Affirm, Captain.”
“Charlie?”
“Agreed, sir.”
“OK, looks like we’ll be partying with the Swedish Bikini Team tonight,” you say, hoping the joke will relieve a little of the tension. “Tell ATC we want vectors for Stockholm Arlanda.”
As Pilot in Command of an Emergency Aircraft, the world is at your beck and call. You don't ask, you tell.
You read the altimeter. Blasting through 16,000’. You ease back on the stick, coaxing the plane out of its earthly plummet, aiming for 10,000’ level off. You pull the mask off.
“Captain,” Kathy chimes in, back from the cabin. “Everyone’s knocked out back there. No injuries that I can see. Flight attendants are groggy but coming to.”
“Damage report?” you ask.
MH370,airline,aviation,avgeek,accident,air crash,capn,aux,captain,blog,emergency,inflight
Aloha 24—the Real Deal
Kathy takes a big breath. “The second, aircraft-right, Overwing exit is gone. It looks like it ripped into the upper right wing and took out a few spoilers in the process. Thank God the overwing slides didn’t deploy. Yet.”
“Roger that,” you reply. “Fire?”
“No flames from Number Two Engine, just smoke now. It’s just out there windmilling, so it looks like you gents got ‘er shut down properly.”
“OK good. You two to get back there and help the flight attendants check all passengers out. They should be coming to soon. Double check for any injuries and all seat belts locked tight. If anyone’s freaking out over the missing door nearby, try to reseat them.”
“Yes, sir,” they echo. 
The next half hour goes by in a blur. The checklists have all been run, the cabin secure for an emergency landing. On touchdown, you’ll have only one reverse thrust, but mercifully the landing gear has deployed, with all brake systems reporting green.
You have selected to land on Stockholm Arlanda's Runway 01L. At nearly 11,000’, it’s the airport’s longest. You’ve elected not to deploy flaps due to the structural damage, so you’ll be coming in mighty hot.

She’s getting awfully hard to control. Despite dialing in max rudder and aileron trim to relieve the pressure—as well as trading flying duties with Mark—your left leg is throbbing from fighting the rudder. Through gentle yoke movements and a lot of hard rudder, you’re finally lined up on final. The runway looms ever closer in the windshield.

MH370,airline,aviation,avgeek,accident,air crash,capn,aux,captain,blog,emergency,inflight

At 500 AGL, you toggle the PA. “This is the Captain. Brace for impact.”
“Over the fence, on target, sink 800,” Mark announces.
You flare. The plane slams home, but you knew it would; no time for finesse. At least she’s on the ground in one piece—well, two pieces. You left a door somewhere back there in the Baltic Sea.
You press the toe brakes and throw Number One into full reverse, fighting the sudden left yaw. The plane shudders and screams . . . and stops.
You set the parking brake and toggle the PA one last time.
“This is the Captain. Remain seated. The situation is under control.”
The cabin erupts in cheers.
You take a deep breath, your heart pounding. 

MH370,airline,aviation,avgeek,accident,air crash,capn,aux,captain,blog,emergency,inflight
Suddenly you notice about 200 TV trucks and cameras behind the airport fence, filming you on live feed to the world.

Book deals, endless talk shows and somewhat unwanted fame is in your near future.

But for now, you’re just thankful to be alive.

Everyone wants to hail you as a hero, even your own flight crew, now patting you on the back.

You shrug, and say something you’ll be repeating on TV talk shows for years to come:
“I was only doing what I was trained to do.”


For your education and enjoyment, here's a recent video of mine that explores the effects of Hypoxia (oxygen starvation):





Link to the original NYCA post:


—  —  —  —  —

My scenario turns out "happy." But in reality, for MH370, there seems to be no "happy ending" in store . . .


POSSIBLE MH370 SCENARIOS ENVISIONED BY OUR "BLOGGING IN FORMATION" TEAM

   The first two articles have been picked up by news feeds worldwide; the 3rd was published 12 hours before this post:



   Karlene Petitt's scenario:



Mark Berry on a very chilling "What if":






Rob Burgon of Tally One on MH370:
A Wolf in Sheep's Clothing? http://tallyone.com/wolf-in-sheeps-clothing/


—  —  —  —  —

Yet another intriguing scenario being batted around the internet right now: Did MH370 "Shadow" another aircraft, and escape into another country? 
(Author not associated with our Blogging in Formation team)
http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68


      POST-FLIGHT CHECKLIST
  1.  JOIN THIS SITE....................VERIFY.............................JOINED
  2.  COMMENT............................VERIFY.............................MADE
  3.  FACEBOOK...........................VERIFY.............................LIKED
  4.  TWITTER...............................VERIFY.............................TWEETED
  5.  EMAIL....................................VERIFY.............................MAILED
  6.  OTHER NETWORKS............VERIFY.............................SHARED 
          POST-FLIGHT CHECKLIST.......................COMPLETE!      
    —  —  —  —  —
    NOTE:
    Due to our Blogging in Formation Team's coverage of the ongoing MH370 incident, we have postponed April's posts. The schedule below is subject to change as well.
    —  —  —  —  —
    LINED UP & WAITING
    Departing March 20
    Dealing with Passengers, Part II
    Medical Emergency!
    — — — — — —
    HOLDING SHORT
    Departing March 27
    Dealing with Passengers, Part III
    "Welcome Aboard! Make my Day."
    — — — — — —
    PRE-BOARDING
    Departing April 1
    Blogging in Formation Week—Postponed

    — — — — — — —

    I invite you to COMMENTSHARETWEETLIKE, EMAIL +1 etc., below!
    vRight down below this line!v

    33 comments:

    1. Eric,
      Great job playing out this scenario. That is certainly a possibility. At this point it hard to say what occurred, but the longer time goes on without wreckage, the more sinister the possible outcomes.

      Thoughts and prayers to the victims.

      Brent

      ReplyDelete
      Replies
      1. Yes, it continues to be a baffling mystery, Brent. I hope we find answers soon!

        Delete
    2. Excellent article Eric! The interesting thing is... if you read my post tomorrow this is the scenario of my prologue in Flight For Survival. Over Greenland, dealing with terrain and trying to find a runway in the data base... no time to talk. But then....

      ReplyDelete
      Replies
      1. Wow, interesting Karlene! I guess I'm tapping into the "pilot-author-blogger" spiritual dimension! Can't wait for Book 3 of your excellent series!

        Delete
    3. hello,, i'm just visit,, have a nice day :D

      ReplyDelete
    4. Many people have had pets throughout their lives. If you’re a proud dog owner or have thought about bringing a pet into your home, you have to think over some things first.
      ntmedicarelocal |

      vickiemilazzohealthcarefocus |

      eldercarematterscanada |

      caregivingreviews |

      bestcaregivingsolution |

      ReplyDelete
    5. The article you have shared here very awesome. I really like and appreciated your work. I read deeply your article, the points you have mentioned in this article are useful. I must try to follow these points and also share others.
      ----
      jogos do friv | jogos de friv | jogos friv

      ReplyDelete
    6. This blog impressed me and over exceeded my expectations. You know how to involve a reader and increase his curiosity to read more. Many congratulations!
      ---
      signature: baixar facebook | baixar | baixar facebook movel

      ReplyDelete
    7. this case was one of the trademark accident happened last year....

      ReplyDelete
    8. a tragic accident where hundreds of live are gone :(

      ReplyDelete
    9. This is great post. Thanks for providing us this great knowledge,Keep it up. i like this blog.
      Signature:

      Visit to play games friv | games2girls | kids games online ! have fun!

      ReplyDelete
    10. Love it :) This is such an amazing idea. Thanks for update information.Keep on posting!
      ---
      Signature:
      i like play games juegos de un show mas | un show mas | juego de un show mas

      ReplyDelete
    11. I always pray for the victims killed in the plane MH370
      Thank your post. It is a very useful information with everyone....Love it. keep posting
      ---
      Signature:
      i like play games descargar whatsapp | descargar whatsapp gratis | descargar whatsapp plus| descargar whatsapp plus gratis

      ReplyDelete
    12. This info is much more valuable than assuming revenue expertise according to previous market come across .
      ---
      games for kids | baixar whatsapp | jogos do pou

      ReplyDelete
    13. You have a real ability for writing unique content. I like how you think and the way you represent your views in this article. I agree with your way of thinking. Thank you for sharing.
      unblocked games| unblocked games at school| unblocked games| friv4school| friv 4 school| call of duty| tetris unblocked| friv games| frivgames| barbie games| barbiegames| monster high games| kizi2| kizi 2

      ReplyDelete
    14. Great post,Thanks for providing us this great knowledge,Keep it up.
      A good blog.
      ----
      facebook movil gratis and facebook movil and apply facebook iniciar sesion celular gratis

      ReplyDelete
    15. Thanks for all your information, Website is very nice and informative content.
      ----
      five nights at freddy's | five nights at freddy's download | fnaf 3

      ReplyDelete
    16. Big Farm

      Big Farm is an awesome multiplayer farm management game made by the Goodgame Studios.
      Your mission is simple: Create a big farm, grow crops, breed animals,
      and become the richest farmer of the universe. Enjoy Goodgame's Big Farm!

      ReplyDelete
    17. Do not know what to say, I liked your article and I hope you will have many entries or more.
      Friv 14|
      Kizi|
      Friv4school

      ReplyDelete
    18. When you're tired, you want to relax after a stressful working hours, you need to have time to take care of the kids active.
      Please visit our website and play exciting flash games.Thanks you for sharing!
      Friv 4

      ReplyDelete
    19. River City là dự án căn hộ cao cấp ngay tại khu Nam Sài Gòn với vị trí vô cùng đắc địa và trong tương lai đây sẽ là một trong những BĐS tạo sức hút vô cùng hấp dẫn từ lối kiến trúc độc đáo, thiết kế tinh xảo và sự uy tín chủ đầu tư. Chủ đầu đầu tư sẽ tổ chức event mở Bán căn hộ cao cấp River City giá gốc tại quận 7 tphcm
      Bán căn hộ cao cấp River City giá gốc tại quận 7 tphcm
      Bán căn hộ cao cấp River City giá gốc
      Bán căn hộ cao cấp River City
      Bán căn hộ River City
      Bán River City
      Bán River City giá gốc tại quận 7
      Bán River City giá gốc
      ban can ho cao cap river city gia goc tai quan 7 tphcm

      ban can ho cao cap river city gia goc tai quan 7
      ban can ho cao cap river city gia goc
      ban can ho cao cap river city


      Biệt thự Vinpearl Bãi Trũ Nha Trang Resort & Villas sẽ được chủ đầu tư tập đoàn Vingroup ra mắt thị trường ngày 22/05/2016. Khi ra mắt đây chắc chăn là sự lựa trọn thông minh của các nhà đầu tư thông thái. Vì dự án là một kênh đầu tư sinh lời cao nhất hiện nay, an toàn nhờ cam kết từ chủ đầu tư và giá trị không ngừng gia tăng theo thời gian.
      BIỆT THỰ VINPEARL BÃI TRŨ NHA TRANG
      biệt thự vinpearl bãi trũ nha trang
      biệt thự vinpearl bãi trũ

      biet thu vinpearl bai tru nha trang
      biet thu vinpearl bai tru
      GIÁ BÁN TRONG ĐỢT MỞ BÁN ĐẦU TIÊN CHỈ 27 TRIỆU/M2
      GỌI NGAY ĐỂ NHẬN QUÀ TẶNG 3 CHIẾC MERCEDES
      ĐĂNG KÝ THÔNG TIN ĐỂ NHẬN THÔNG TIN BẢNG GIÁ DỰ ÁN river city
      cây kim tiền
      bán cây kim tiền
      bán cây kim tiền để bàn làm việc


      ReplyDelete
    20. The blog or and best that is extremely useful to keep I can share the ideas. Age Of War 2
      Big Farm | Slitherio | Tank Trouble
      Of the future as this is really what I was looking for, I am very comfortable and pleased to come here. Thank you very much.
      Happy Wheels | Goodgeme Empire | Slither.io

      ReplyDelete
    21. Such a very useful article. Very interesting to read this article.I would like to thank you for the efforts you had made for writing this awesome article.

      Discover our website bounty of free online games now!
      Our website has the biggest collection of free online games. Totally new games are added every day!

      age of war 2| gold Miner 2| unfair Mario 2 | cubefield 2 |tanki Online 2

      ReplyDelete

    Sorry, folks, due to more spamming, Word Verification is back on. If you have trouble posting, please email your comments to me and I will post it for you!

    capnaux@gmail.com